Polls and Politics

Riding the Red Wave to Nowhere

The purpose of political polling is threefold.

First, and most importantly (to the micro-economy of politics), polls are used by the media to incite spending on political advertising.¹ This is done by always portraying races as competitive whenever that narrative is believable—and even when it isn’t. The zombie known as TV is being propped up by political ad buys, and no one is going to spend money to advertise in a race that they are guaranteed to win or guaranteed to lose.

Thus you get articles like this, proclaiming that, in Oklahoma, polls show the Democrat may win the governor’s race and, in Oregon, polls show the Republican may become governor. One of those things may indeed happen in 2022, but not both.

There are also the biannual "Texas is turning blue" stories, intended to ensure the Beta Beto threat is taken seriously and money is spent to defeat the skateboarding stoner. In order for this “race is a toss-up” scam to keep working, the pollsters and pundits often have to make some last-minute revisions to explain how a toss-up race became a double-digit landslide on election day. It’s not that the polls were wrong. A “huge last-minute push of that attack ad that ran everywhere” must’ve changed everything.

The second purpose of polling is to support the election narrative being propagated by the Powers and Principalities that are determining the election outcome. When you want to “rig” an election (and they are all rigged), you can’t make it too obvious. And you can’t have a situation like 2020, where even the dimmest bulbs start to question how exactly the basement-dwelling Biden was able to get 81,283,361 people to vote for him when he couldn’t get 81 backers to show up for any of his campaign events.

As you may remember, the 2020 polls consistently showed Biden with a comfortable lead, which directly contradicted the situation in the real world, where it was virtually impossible to find enthusiastic Biden or Kamala supporters in the general election. [The rigging of the the Democratic primary is its own story, but the idea that Biden and Kamala were the “choice of the people” is laughable.]

Whether specifically for the Ukraine war agenda or for other reasons, it was deemed so important the Biden puppet “win” that billions of dollars were poured into an “Orange Man Bad” media onslaught that pervaded everything from nightly network news to local stories emphasizing the dangers of having a Trump sticker on your car or sign in your yard. The polls were valued not because everyone trusted the results (at this point, only the dumbest of Twitter Blue Checks still really believe them), but because they provided narrative plausibility to the predetermined Biden “victory.”

The third purpose of the polls is to manipulate the behavior of potential voters. Just as polls are used to incite political spending, so does their prediction of a “close race” encourage people to get out and vote. Those same sought-after voters would be less likely to participate if they felt the outcome were decided in advance. Similarly, polls can be used to discourage participation—e.g., “Ron Paul has no chance to win, you plebs. Judge by his poll numbers, not by the swarms of supporters at his events.” I’d love to see a mathematical analysis of the probability that all the races that are neck-and-neck according to the polls are actually as close as they’re portrayed to be.

The results of the upcoming November 8, 2022, midterms were clear as far back as January 2020, and the forecast hasn’t changed since. The powers-that-shouldn’t-be are allowing a “Red Wave” of RINO Republicans to keep the election illusion alive—perhaps as a release valve for the pent-up frustration of “conservatives” (i.e., normal people), who are sick of everything from lockdowns to poisonous vaccines to Drag Queen Story Hour.

The Republicans, who now occupy eight fewer seats in the House of Representatives than the Democrats, will dominate the House after next week’s elections. The outcome will result in lots of grandstanding at congressional hearings and nothing else. The Republican Party is like the Washington Generals of politics.² They get paid to play just hard enough to make it a game but never actually win.

There will be lots of tough talk by the members of the new majority party about Tony Fauci (maybe to Fauci’s face). But will he actually be punished for his crimes? Of course not.

Members of the Grand Old Party will also stridently question the overlords of Big Tech in the hopes that we forget they forgot to do anything but accept campaign donations when they had the opportunity in 2017–2018. There will be lots of talk about censorship, but I recommend against holding your breath while waiting for congressional Republicans to demand that “wrong thinkers” like Alex Jones or James Corbett be reinstated to normie social media platforms.

The GOP may also win a majority of seats in the Senate, but of course it won’t be enough votes to override presidential vetoes or even to override the 60 votes needed for a filibuster-proof (and excuse-proof) voting bloc.

There will be much media hand-wringing about “gridlock” to provide political cover for the bipartisan continuation of the same wars.

There will also be the same regulatory capture by Big Pharma and Big Food and the same deliberate destruction of our economy—but, strangely enough, no media hand-wringing about those two subjects. But, oh, the gridlock is so terrible!

But don’t worry, guys, there’s another election coming in 2024. Polls focusing on it are already out and the returns thus far are very promising. Just keep on voting!

1. Credit to Adam Curry and JCD of No Agenda for consistently putting forward this thesis.

https://www.noagendashow.net

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Generals